Response to the Forward of "Journalism Next" by Mark Briggs

Jennifer Sizemore of MSNBC, who wrote the Forward to Journalism Next was optimistic in diagnosing the journalism industry. Yes, newspapers are dying, she said. But people have a voracious news appetite nonetheless, so there will always be journalists--that is as long as those journalists find the most effective available ways to connect with them.

Since this industry will probably be a part of my career, I'm glad to think there might yet be a way to support my family in it. Sizemore points out that she transitioned from a print publication to a digital publication right before newspapers started to tank. George just lucky, I guess. I think if I was one of the thousands of laid off journalists and editors I would be irritated with her focus on the fortunate survivors. Let the dead bury the dead, she implies, The rest of us still have careers.

Alright, well now my question is how much career is out there to be had? Sure, there are hundreds of news publications online (maybe more). But how many of those can pull in the ad traffic necessary to pay their staff a living wage? Now that the news publication industry is free from the tether of physical printing and distribution, now that it is a digitally scalable commodity, I assume that it follows the exponential population rules common to digital commodities. Some people call this phenomenon the "Long Tail" (after the book by Chris Anderson). It's a logarithmic distribution.

The main idea is that a few sites dominate the market, then popularity tapers down rapidly as sites appeal to a more and more niche audience.

Here's another graph to come at the point another way. I'm rusty on math but in case you're not, here's an estimation of the logarithmic distribution of website popularity (from nngroup.com)

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My point is lets not let the myriad journalism outlets confuse us into thinking they all have the clout that allows MSNBC to pay Jennifer Sizemore a living wage. It's great talk, but let's be realistic about the fact that there is no clear economic model that can yet replace the subscription/ad combo that most publications relied on for 200 years.